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Probability

In Unit 9, we are learning about probability and the chances an event will occur. Probability originated from the study of games of chance. Games of chance can involve dice, playing cards, or a game spinner. For this discussion, you will conduct an experiment using a coin, and then use the results of the experiment to learn more about probability and odds.

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Post 1

  • What is the difference between theoretical and empirical probability? What is the theoretical probability of flipping a coin and getting a tail? Do you expect the empirical probability to be the same as the theoretical probability? Why or why not?
  • Name your favorite musician, actor, author or artist and do a Google search to find his or her age. Flip a coin one time for each year the person is old. If he or she is 34, flip the coin 34 times. Record the number of tails you obtain.
  • Use the data to determine the empirical probability that the coin will land on tails. Express the probability as a fraction, a decimal, and a percentage. Round your answers to two decimal places, if necessary.

Explain your calculations and show all work. Review an example of a response for this Discussion.

Post 2

Choose one of your classmate’s Post 1 and use the empirical probability to do the following:

  • Find the odds in favor of flipping a coin and getting a tail.
  • Find the odds against.
  • If given the choice, would you rather have the probability of an event or the odds in favor/against an event? Why?

Explain how you obtained the odds and show all work. Review an example of a response for this Discussion.

Post 3

Find and comment on at least one classmate’s post. Make sure your comments are substantive and advance the Discussion. Possibilities for comment include:

  • Apply one of the important probability facts from Section 12.2 to a classmate’s empirical probability.
  • Take the number of tails from your original post and from the original posts of three of your classmates. Add the number of tails from all four AND add the number of flips from all four. Use these numbers to calculate a new probability. How is this different than the probability that you originally obtained? Is it closer to your original probability or to the theoretical probability? Why or why not?
  • Compare a classmate’s empirical probability with the theoretical probability of flipping a coin and getting a tail.

CLASSMATE POST 1

Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen;the number of ways the event can happen divided by the total number of possible outcomes. Empirical probability is what happen when we try it out: number of times the event occurs divided by the total number of incidents observed.

My favorite celebrity is Guy Fieri!! He is 50 years old.

P(tails)=28/50=14/25

decimal= 0.56

percent=56%

I don’t think the empirical probability is the same as theoretical probability. I think you would have to use empirical probability because of the large number 50.